Champions League 2026/27: every team's chances of going through
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Updated 26 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase
18 of 144 league-phase matches have been played. The best chances of a top-8 finish belong to Bayern München (84%), Real Madrid (82%) and Liverpool (78%). The tightest calls are Leipzig, Feyenoord and Shakhtar Donetsk, whose chances of going through are close to 50%. In the simulations, 16 points usually secure the top 8 and 9 points are usually enough for 24th place or better.
Table and chances
The current table with every team's chances from the simulations. Click a team to see its fixtures and scenarios.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Top 8 | Through | Out | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | +5 | 3 | 72% | 99% | 1% | |
| 2 | Bayern München | 1 | +5 | 3 | 84% | >99% | <1% | |
| 3 | Barcelona | 1 | +4 | 3 | 69% | >99% | <1% | |
| 4 | Manchester United | 1 | +4 | 3 | 19% | 87% | 13% | |
| 5 | Como | 1 | +3 | 3 | 12% | 81% | 19% | |
| 6 | Sporting CP | 1 | +2 | 3 | 21% | 90% | 10% | |
| 7 | Stuttgart | 1 | +2 | 3 | 22% | 90% | 10% | |
| 8 | Manchester City | 1 | +2 | 3 | 55% | 98% | 2% | |
| 9 | Real Betis | 1 | +1 | 3 | 13% | 83% | 17% | |
| 10 | Lens | 1 | +1 | 3 | 11% | 78% | 22% | |
| 11 | Aston Villa | 1 | +1 | 3 | 36% | 96% | 4% | |
| 12 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | +1 | 3 | 35% | 96% | 4% | |
| 13 | Real Madrid | 1 | +1 | 3 | 82% | >99% | <1% | |
| 14 | Liverpool | 1 | +1 | 3 | 78% | >99% | <1% | |
| 15 | Arsenal | 1 | +1 | 3 | 78% | >99% | <1% | |
| 16 | AEK Athens | 1 | +1 | 3 | 2% | 44% | 56% | |
| 17 | Roma | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7% | 74% | 26% | |
| 18 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2% | 45% | 55% | |
| 19 | Fenerbahçe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4% | 61% | 39% | |
| 20 | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6% | 69% | 31% | |
| 21 | Villarreal | 1 | -1 | 0 | 4% | 62% | 38% | |
| 22 | Slavia Praha | 1 | -1 | 0 | <1% | 20% | 80% | |
| 23 | Club Brugge | 1 | -1 | 0 | 1% | 34% | 66% | |
| 24 | Lille | 1 | -1 | 0 | 2% | 45% | 55% | |
| 25 | Atlético de Madrid | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20% | 88% | 12% | |
| 26 | Inter | 1 | -1 | 0 | 33% | 95% | 5% | |
| 27 | LASK | 1 | -1 | 0 | <1% | 11% | 89% | |
| 28 | Napoli | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20% | 90% | 10% | |
| 29 | Galatasaray | 1 | -2 | 0 | 1% | 41% | 59% | |
| 30 | Viking | 1 | -2 | 0 | <1% | 9% | 91% | |
| 31 | Porto | 1 | -2 | 0 | 5% | 65% | 35% | |
| 32 | Leipzig | 1 | -3 | 0 | 2% | 51% | 49% | |
| 33 | Feyenoord | 1 | -4 | 0 | 2% | 47% | 53% | |
| 34 | Sabah | 1 | -4 | 0 | 0% | 2% | 98% | |
| 35 | Slovan Bratislava | 1 | -5 | 0 | <1% | 12% | 88% | |
| 36 | Bodø/Glimt | 1 | -5 | 0 | 2% | 40% | 60% |
Matchday 2 fixtures
Model chances for each match: home win, draw, away win. Times in your time zone.
- Tue 13 Oct, 18:45 Lens – Sporting CP 37% · 26% · 37%
- Tue 13 Oct, 18:45 Sabah – Slavia Praha 24% · 25% · 51%
- Tue 13 Oct, 21:00 Arsenal – Lille 75% · 16% · 9%
- Tue 13 Oct, 21:00 Atlético de Madrid – Manchester United 51% · 25% · 24%
- Tue 13 Oct, 21:00 Galatasaray – Barcelona 18% · 22% · 60%
- Tue 13 Oct, 21:00 Inter – Club Brugge 67% · 20% · 13%
- Tue 13 Oct, 21:00 Leipzig – PSV Eindhoven 43% · 26% · 31%
- Tue 13 Oct, 21:00 Viking – Bayern München 5% · 12% · 83%
- Tue 13 Oct, 21:00 Villarreal – Napoli 36% · 26% · 38%
- Wed 14 Oct, 18:45 Feyenoord – Como 37% · 26% · 37%
- Wed 14 Oct, 18:45 LASK – Liverpool 7% · 14% · 79%
- Wed 14 Oct, 21:00 Aston Villa – Fenerbahçe 59% · 22% · 18%
- Wed 14 Oct, 21:00 Bodø/Glimt – Borussia Dortmund 28% · 26% · 46%
- Wed 14 Oct, 21:00 Manchester City – Paris Saint-Germain 35% · 26% · 38%
- Wed 14 Oct, 21:00 Real Betis – Porto 43% · 26% · 31%
- Wed 14 Oct, 21:00 Roma – Real Madrid 22% · 24% · 54%
- Wed 14 Oct, 21:00 Shakhtar Donetsk – AEK Athens 46% · 26% · 28%
- Wed 14 Oct, 21:00 Slovan Bratislava – Stuttgart 19% · 23% · 59%
How many points are needed?
How often a team finishing on each points total ends in the top 8 or at least 24th across the simulations.
How the league phase works
The Champions League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.
If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.
Frequently asked questions
How many points are needed for the top 8 in the Champions League?
In the simulations 16 points are usually enough. For 24th place or better, which means a knockout play-off spot, 9 points are usually enough.
Which teams are favourites in the Champions League?
The best chances of a top-8 finish belong to Bayern München (84%), Real Madrid (82%), Liverpool (78%).
Which teams are on a knife edge?
Closest to a 50% chance of going through are Leipzig, Feyenoord, Shakhtar Donetsk. For these teams a single result can decide everything.
How does the Champions League league phase work?
36 teams play in a single table, each playing 8 matches against different opponents. The top eight go straight to the round of 16, 9th to 24th play a knockout play-off, and 25th to 36th are eliminated.
When does the league phase finish and what comes next?
The final matchday is on 27 January, when all matches kick off at the same time. The knockout play-offs are on 16/17 and 23/24 February 2027, the round of 16 on 9/10 and 16/17 March 2027, and the final is on 5 June 2027 in Madrid (Estadio Metropolitano).
How does the Champions League differ from the other two competitions?
All three work the same way: 36 teams in one table, the top 8 go straight to the round of 16, 9th to 24th play a knockout play-off and 25th to 36th are eliminated. The difference is the number of matches: 8 each in the Champions League and Europa League, but 6 in the Conference League, which is why its points threshold is lower.
Are these numbers a prediction?
No. They are probabilities from 30,000 simulations based on team strength ratings and results so far. They show what is more likely, not what will certainly happen, and they are recalculated after every matchday.
All team pages
- AEK Athens
- Arsenal
- Aston Villa
- Atlético de Madrid
- Barcelona
- Bayern München
- Bodø/Glimt
- Borussia Dortmund
- Club Brugge
- Como
- Fenerbahçe
- Feyenoord
- Galatasaray
- Inter
- LASK
- Leipzig
- Lens
- Lille
- Liverpool
- Manchester City
- Manchester United
- Napoli
- Paris Saint-Germain
- Porto
- PSV Eindhoven
- Real Betis
- Real Madrid
- Roma
- Sabah
- Shakhtar Donetsk
- Slavia Praha
- Slovan Bratislava
- Sporting CP
- Stuttgart
- Viking
- Villarreal