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Manchester City vs Paris Saint-Germain: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 2 · Wednesday 14 October, 21:00

Manchester City8th, 3 pts
–Matchday 2
Paris Saint-Germain1st, 3 pts
35%Manchester City win
26%Draw
38%Paris Saint-Germain win

The model gives Manchester City a 35% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Paris Saint-Germain 38%. Manchester City's chance of going through is 98% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 97%. Paris Saint-Germain's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 99%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Manchester City: top 8Manchester City: throughParis Saint-Germain: top 8Paris Saint-Germain: through
Now55%98%72%99%
Manchester City win75%>99%58%99%
Draw52%99%69%99%
Paris Saint-Germain win39%97%87%>99%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
0–110%
1–010%
1–28%
2–18%
0–08%

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Manchester City vs Paris Saint-Germain?

The model gives Paris Saint-Germain a 38% chance of winning. A draw has a 26% chance.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 0–1 (10%).

What does this match mean for Manchester City?

Manchester City currently have a 98% chance of going through. A win or a defeat changes that significantly, and the exact figures are in the table on this page.

When is Manchester City vs Paris Saint-Germain played?

Wednesday 14 October, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 2).

Other matchday 2 fixtures