Roma vs Real Madrid: what's at stake in the Champions League?
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Matchday 2 · Wednesday 14 October, 21:00
The model gives Roma a 22% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Real Madrid 54%. Roma's chance of going through is 74% now: a win would take it to 91%, a defeat to 65%. Real Madrid's top-8 chance is 82% now: a win would take it to 91%, a defeat to 64%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Roma: top 8 | Roma: through | Real Madrid: top 8 | Real Madrid: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 7% | 74% | 82% | >99% |
| Roma win | 18% | 91% | 64% | 99% |
| Draw | 6% | 77% | 76% | >99% |
| Real Madrid win | 3% | 65% | 91% | 100% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favourite in Roma vs Real Madrid?
The model gives Real Madrid a 54% chance of winning. A draw has a 24% chance.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely exact score is 0–1 (12%), followed by 1–1 (11%).
What does this match mean for Roma?
Roma currently have a 74% chance of going through. A win or a defeat changes that significantly, and the exact figures are in the table on this page.
When is Roma vs Real Madrid played?
Wednesday 14 October, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 2).
Other matchday 2 fixtures
- Lens – Sporting CP
- Sabah – Slavia Praha
- Arsenal – Lille
- Atlético de Madrid – Manchester United
- Inter – Club Brugge
- Galatasaray – Barcelona
- Leipzig – PSV Eindhoven
- Viking – Bayern München
- Villarreal – Napoli
- Feyenoord – Como
- LASK – Liverpool
- Aston Villa – Fenerbahçe
- Shakhtar Donetsk – AEK Athens
- Bodø/Glimt – Borussia Dortmund
- Manchester City – Paris Saint-Germain
- Real Betis – Porto
- Slovan Bratislava – Stuttgart