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Atlético de Madrid vs Manchester United: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 2 · Tuesday 13 October, 21:00

Atlético de Madrid25th, 0 pts
–Matchday 2
Manchester United4th, 3 pts
51%Atlético de Madrid win
25%Draw
24%Manchester United win

The model gives Atlético de Madrid a 51% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Manchester United 24%. Atlético de Madrid's chance of going through is 88% now: a win would take it to 95%, a defeat to 77%. Manchester United's chance of going through is 87% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 81%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Atlético de Madrid: top 8Atlético de Madrid: throughManchester United: top 8Manchester United: through
Now20%88%19%87%
Atlético de Madrid win30%95%11%81%
Draw12%85%19%89%
Manchester United win6%77%38%98%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–110%
2–09%
0–17%
0–07%

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Atlético de Madrid vs Manchester United?

The model gives Atlético de Madrid a 51% chance of winning. A draw has a 25% chance.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

What does this match mean for Atlético de Madrid?

Atlético de Madrid currently have a 88% chance of going through. A win or a defeat changes that significantly, and the exact figures are in the table on this page.

When is Atlético de Madrid vs Manchester United played?

Tuesday 13 October, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 2).

Other matchday 2 fixtures