Knockout Math
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What does Manchester United need to go through in the Champions League?

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Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, Manchester United are 4th with 3 points. Next match: 13 October, away against Atlético de Madrid. In our simulations Manchester United go through (24th place or better) in 86% of cases and make the top 8 in 20%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against Leipzig (matchday 6) and Roma (matchday 4): each result moves the chances by about 23 percentage points.

4thleague position
3point from 1 match
86%chance of going through (top 24)
20%chance of making the top 8

15,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 14th, average 15.6.

Manchester United matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Thursday 10 September, 21:00
    HomeSabah4–0
    Win 83%, draw 12%, defeat 5%
    Chance of going through:Played
  2. Matchday 2Tuesday 13 October, 21:00
    AwayAtlético de Madrid –
    Win 23%, draw 24%, defeat 53%
    Chance of going through:If they win97%If they draw88%If they lose80%
  3. Matchday 3Wednesday 21 October, 18:45
    AwayComo –
    Win 38%, draw 26%, defeat 36%
    Chance of going through:If they win95%If they draw86%If they lose75%
  4. Matchday 4Tuesday 3 November, 21:00
    HomeRoma –
    Win 48%, draw 25%, defeat 26%
    Chance of going through:If they win94%If they draw82%If they lose73%
  5. Matchday 5Wednesday 25 November, 21:00
    AwaySporting CP –
    Win 33%, draw 26%, defeat 41%
    Chance of going through:If they win96%If they draw87%If they lose77%
  6. Matchday 6Tuesday 8 December, 21:00
    HomeLeipzig –
    Win 48%, draw 25%, defeat 26%
    Chance of going through:If they win95%If they draw83%If they lose72%
  7. Matchday 7Wednesday 20 January, 21:00
    HomeBayern München –
    Win 22%, draw 24%, defeat 53%
    Chance of going through:If they win97%If they draw88%If they lose80%
  8. Matchday 8Wednesday 27 January, 21:00
    AwayVillarreal –
    Win 34%, draw 26%, defeat 40%
    Chance of going through:If they win96%If they draw86%If they lose77%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Manchester United collect in the league phase.

0unlikely
1unlikely
2unlikely
3unlikely
40%
50%
60%
72%
829%
978%
1099%
11100%
12100%
13100%
14100%
15100%
16100%
17100%
18100%
19100%
20100%
21100%
22100%
23unlikely
24unlikely
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Manchester United finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Champions League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Paris Saint-Germain399%
  2. 2Bayern München3>99%
  3. 3Barcelona399%
  4. 4Manchester United386%
  5. 5Como377%
  6. 6Sporting CP389%
  7. 7Stuttgart388%
  8. 8Manchester City398%
  9. 9Real Betis382%
  10. 10Lens376%
  11. 11Aston Villa395%
  12. 12Borussia Dortmund395%
  13. 13Real Madrid3>99%
  14. 14Liverpool3>99%
  15. 15Arsenal3>99%
  16. 16AEK Athens342%
  17. 17Roma173%
  18. 18Shakhtar Donetsk145%
  19. 19Fenerbahçe160%
  20. 20PSV Eindhoven166%
  21. 21Villarreal063%
  22. 22Slavia Praha021%
  23. 23Club Brugge036%
  24. 24Lille046%
  25. 25Atlético de Madrid089%
  26. 26Inter095%
  27. 27LASK011%
  28. 28Napoli090%
  29. 29Galatasaray044%
  30. 30Viking09%
  31. 31Porto067%
  32. 32Leipzig057%
  33. 33Feyenoord048%
  34. 34Sabah02%
  35. 35Slovan Bratislava011%
  36. 36Bodø/Glimt041%

How the league phase works

The Champions League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Other Champions League teams