Knockout Math
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What does Como need to go through in the Champions League?

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Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, Como are 5th with 3 points. Next match: 14 October, away against Feyenoord. In our simulations Como go through (24th place or better) in 77% of cases and make the top 8 in 10%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain. The biggest match is the matchday 5 game at home against AEK Athens: winning or losing it moves the chances by 32 percentage points.

5thleague position
3point from 1 match
77%chance of going through (top 24)
10%chance of making the top 8

15,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 20th, average 18.4.

Como matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Thursday 10 September, 21:00
    HomeLeipzig4–1
    Win 40%, draw 26%, defeat 34%
    Chance of going through:Played
  2. Matchday 2Wednesday 14 October, 18:45
    AwayFeyenoord –
    Win 34%, draw 26%, defeat 40%
    Chance of going through:If they win92%If they draw78%If they lose64%
  3. Matchday 3Wednesday 21 October, 18:45
    HomeManchester United –
    Win 36%, draw 26%, defeat 38%
    Chance of going through:If they win92%If they draw77%If they lose64%
  4. Matchday 4Wednesday 4 November, 21:00
    AwayLens –
    Win 31%, draw 26%, defeat 43%
    Chance of going through:If they win93%If they draw77%If they lose65%
  5. Matchday 5Tuesday 24 November, 21:00
    HomeAEK Athens –
    Win 58%, draw 23%, defeat 19%
    Chance of going through:If they win88%If they draw68%If they lose55%
  6. Matchday 6Wednesday 9 December, 18:45
    AwayReal Betis –
    Win 30%, draw 26%, defeat 44%
    Chance of going through:If they win93%If they draw76%If they lose67%
  7. Matchday 7Wednesday 20 January, 21:00
    HomeParis Saint-Germain –
    Win 16%, draw 21%, defeat 63%
    Chance of going through:If they win95%If they draw81%If they lose72%
  8. Matchday 8Wednesday 27 January, 21:00
    AwayBarcelona –
    Win 11%, draw 17%, defeat 72%
    Chance of going through:If they win95%If they draw83%If they lose73%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Como collect in the league phase.

0unlikely
1unlikely
2unlikely
3unlikely
40%
50%
60%
72%
824%
973%
1097%
11>99%
12100%
13100%
14100%
15100%
16100%
17100%
18100%
19100%
20unlikely
21unlikely
22unlikely
23unlikely
24unlikely
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Como finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Champions League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Paris Saint-Germain399%
  2. 2Bayern München3>99%
  3. 3Barcelona399%
  4. 4Manchester United386%
  5. 5Como377%
  6. 6Sporting CP390%
  7. 7Stuttgart388%
  8. 8Manchester City398%
  9. 9Real Betis382%
  10. 10Lens375%
  11. 11Aston Villa395%
  12. 12Borussia Dortmund395%
  13. 13Real Madrid3>99%
  14. 14Liverpool3>99%
  15. 15Arsenal3>99%
  16. 16AEK Athens342%
  17. 17Roma173%
  18. 18Shakhtar Donetsk144%
  19. 19Fenerbahçe159%
  20. 20PSV Eindhoven167%
  21. 21Villarreal063%
  22. 22Slavia Praha022%
  23. 23Club Brugge035%
  24. 24Lille046%
  25. 25Atlético de Madrid089%
  26. 26Inter095%
  27. 27LASK011%
  28. 28Napoli090%
  29. 29Galatasaray045%
  30. 30Viking09%
  31. 31Porto067%
  32. 32Leipzig057%
  33. 33Feyenoord047%
  34. 34Sabah02%
  35. 35Slovan Bratislava012%
  36. 36Bodø/Glimt041%

How the league phase works

The Champions League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Other Champions League teams