Knockout Math
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What does PSV Eindhoven need to go through in the Champions League?

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Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, PSV Eindhoven are 20th with 1 point. Next match: 13 October, away against Leipzig. In our simulations PSV Eindhoven go through (24th place or better) in 66% of cases and make the top 8 in 6%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against Club Brugge (matchday 4) and Viking (matchday 7): each result moves the chances by about 35 percentage points.

20thleague position
1point from 1 match
66%chance of going through (top 24)
6%chance of making the top 8

15,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 18th, average 20.6.

PSV Eindhoven matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Thursday 10 September, 18:45
    HomeShakhtar Donetsk1–1
    Win 58%, draw 23%, defeat 19%
    Chance of going through:Played
  2. Matchday 2Tuesday 13 October, 21:00
    AwayLeipzig –
    Win 29%, draw 26%, defeat 45%
    Chance of going through:If they win85%If they draw68%If they lose54%
  3. Matchday 3Tuesday 20 October, 21:00
    AwayPorto –
    Win 29%, draw 26%, defeat 45%
    Chance of going through:If they win85%If they draw69%If they lose53%
  4. Matchday 4Wednesday 4 November, 21:00
    HomeClub Brugge –
    Win 48%, draw 25%, defeat 26%
    Chance of going through:If they win81%If they draw59%If they lose46%
  5. Matchday 5Tuesday 24 November, 21:00
    AwayReal Madrid –
    Win 12%, draw 19%, defeat 69%
    Chance of going through:If they win87%If they draw74%If they lose61%
  6. Matchday 6Wednesday 9 December, 21:00
    HomeAtlético de Madrid –
    Win 31%, draw 26%, defeat 43%
    Chance of going through:If they win86%If they draw66%If they lose53%
  7. Matchday 7Wednesday 20 January, 21:00
    AwayViking –
    Win 55%, draw 24%, defeat 21%
    Chance of going through:If they win79%If they draw58%If they lose42%
  8. Matchday 8Wednesday 27 January, 21:00
    HomeStuttgart –
    Win 44%, draw 26%, defeat 30%
    Chance of going through:If they win82%If they draw61%If they lose48%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points PSV Eindhoven collect in the league phase.

0unlikely
1unlikely
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
71%
819%
970%
1097%
11100%
12100%
13100%
14100%
15100%
16100%
17100%
18100%
19100%
20unlikely
21unlikely
22unlikely
23unlikely
24unlikely
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could PSV Eindhoven finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Champions League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Paris Saint-Germain399%
  2. 2Bayern München3>99%
  3. 3Barcelona399%
  4. 4Manchester United386%
  5. 5Como378%
  6. 6Sporting CP389%
  7. 7Stuttgart388%
  8. 8Manchester City398%
  9. 9Real Betis381%
  10. 10Lens376%
  11. 11Aston Villa395%
  12. 12Borussia Dortmund395%
  13. 13Real Madrid3>99%
  14. 14Liverpool3>99%
  15. 15Arsenal3>99%
  16. 16AEK Athens342%
  17. 17Roma173%
  18. 18Shakhtar Donetsk144%
  19. 19Fenerbahçe160%
  20. 20PSV Eindhoven166%
  21. 21Villarreal063%
  22. 22Slavia Praha021%
  23. 23Club Brugge036%
  24. 24Lille047%
  25. 25Atlético de Madrid089%
  26. 26Inter095%
  27. 27LASK011%
  28. 28Napoli090%
  29. 29Galatasaray045%
  30. 30Viking010%
  31. 31Porto066%
  32. 32Leipzig057%
  33. 33Feyenoord047%
  34. 34Sabah02%
  35. 35Slovan Bratislava011%
  36. 36Bodø/Glimt041%

How the league phase works

The Champions League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Other Champions League teams