Knockout Math
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What does Villarreal need to go through in the Champions League?

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Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, Villarreal are 21st with 0 points. Next match: 13 October, at home against Napoli. In our simulations Villarreal go through (24th place or better) in 63% of cases and make the top 8 in 4%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against Fenerbahçe (matchday 7) and Slavia Praha (matchday 5): each result moves the chances by about 38 percentage points.

21stleague position
0point from 1 match
63%chance of going through (top 24)
4%chance of making the top 8

15,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 22nd, average 21.5.

Villarreal matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Tuesday 8 September, 21:00
    AwayBorussia Dortmund2–3
    Win 25%, draw 25%, defeat 50%
    Chance of going through:Played
  2. Matchday 2Tuesday 13 October, 21:00
    HomeNapoli –
    Win 36%, draw 26%, defeat 38%
    Chance of going through:If they win82%If they draw60%If they lose47%
  3. Matchday 3Tuesday 20 October, 21:00
    AwayLiverpool –
    Win 14%, draw 20%, defeat 67%
    Chance of going through:If they win86%If they draw69%If they lose57%
  4. Matchday 4Tuesday 3 November, 21:00
    HomeParis Saint-Germain –
    Win 18%, draw 23%, defeat 59%
    Chance of going through:If they win85%If they draw67%If they lose54%
  5. Matchday 5Wednesday 25 November, 18:45
    AwaySlavia Praha –
    Win 45%, draw 26%, defeat 29%
    Chance of going through:If they win79%If they draw57%If they lose43%
  6. Matchday 6Tuesday 8 December, 18:45
    HomeSabah –
    Win 80%, draw 13%, defeat 7%
    Chance of going through:If they win68%If they draw43%If they lose36%
  7. Matchday 7Wednesday 20 January, 18:45
    AwayFenerbahçe –
    Win 36%, draw 26%, defeat 37%
    Chance of going through:If they win83%If they draw60%If they lose45%
  8. Matchday 8Wednesday 27 January, 21:00
    HomeManchester United –
    Win 40%, draw 26%, defeat 34%
    Chance of going through:If they win81%If they draw58%If they lose45%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Villarreal collect in the league phase.

0unlikely
1unlikely
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
71%
827%
973%
1098%
11100%
12100%
13100%
14100%
15100%
16100%
17100%
18100%
19100%
20unlikely
21unlikely
22unlikely
23unlikely
24unlikely
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Villarreal finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Champions League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Paris Saint-Germain399%
  2. 2Bayern München3>99%
  3. 3Barcelona399%
  4. 4Manchester United386%
  5. 5Como378%
  6. 6Sporting CP389%
  7. 7Stuttgart388%
  8. 8Manchester City398%
  9. 9Real Betis381%
  10. 10Lens375%
  11. 11Aston Villa395%
  12. 12Borussia Dortmund395%
  13. 13Real Madrid3>99%
  14. 14Liverpool3>99%
  15. 15Arsenal3>99%
  16. 16AEK Athens342%
  17. 17Roma174%
  18. 18Shakhtar Donetsk144%
  19. 19Fenerbahçe160%
  20. 20PSV Eindhoven167%
  21. 21Villarreal063%
  22. 22Slavia Praha021%
  23. 23Club Brugge036%
  24. 24Lille047%
  25. 25Atlético de Madrid089%
  26. 26Inter095%
  27. 27LASK011%
  28. 28Napoli090%
  29. 29Galatasaray045%
  30. 30Viking010%
  31. 31Porto067%
  32. 32Leipzig057%
  33. 33Feyenoord047%
  34. 34Sabah02%
  35. 35Slovan Bratislava012%
  36. 36Bodø/Glimt041%

How the league phase works

The Champions League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Other Champions League teams