Knockout Math
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What does Lens need to go through in the Champions League?

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Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, Lens are 10th with 3 points. Next match: 13 October, at home against Sporting CP. In our simulations Lens go through (24th place or better) in 76% of cases and make the top 8 in 10%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against Bodø/Glimt (matchday 6) and Como (matchday 4): each result moves the chances by about 31 percentage points.

10thleague position
3point from 1 match
76%chance of going through (top 24)
10%chance of making the top 8

15,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 17th, average 18.7.

Lens matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Thursday 10 September, 21:00
    AwaySlavia Praha3–2
    Win 39%, draw 26%, defeat 34%
    Chance of going through:Played
  2. Matchday 2Tuesday 13 October, 18:45
    HomeSporting CP –
    Win 37%, draw 26%, defeat 36%
    Chance of going through:If they win90%If they draw74%If they lose62%
  3. Matchday 3Wednesday 21 October, 21:00
    AwayClub Brugge –
    Win 30%, draw 26%, defeat 44%
    Chance of going through:If they win92%If they draw77%If they lose64%
  4. Matchday 4Wednesday 4 November, 21:00
    HomeComo –
    Win 43%, draw 26%, defeat 31%
    Chance of going through:If they win90%If they draw72%If they lose59%
  5. Matchday 5Tuesday 24 November, 21:00
    AwayLeipzig –
    Win 25%, draw 25%, defeat 50%
    Chance of going through:If they win93%If they draw78%If they lose66%
  6. Matchday 6Wednesday 9 December, 21:00
    HomeBodø/Glimt –
    Win 48%, draw 25%, defeat 26%
    Chance of going through:If they win88%If they draw70%If they lose57%
  7. Matchday 7Wednesday 20 January, 21:00
    HomeManchester City –
    Win 21%, draw 24%, defeat 55%
    Chance of going through:If they win92%If they draw79%If they lose67%
  8. Matchday 8Wednesday 27 January, 21:00
    AwayLiverpool –
    Win 11%, draw 17%, defeat 72%
    Chance of going through:If they win94%If they draw82%If they lose71%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Lens collect in the league phase.

0unlikely
1unlikely
2unlikely
30%
40%
50%
60%
7<1%
814%
962%
1096%
11100%
12100%
13100%
14100%
15100%
16100%
17100%
18100%
19100%
20100%
21unlikely
22unlikely
23unlikely
24unlikely
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Lens finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Champions League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Paris Saint-Germain3>99%
  2. 2Bayern München3>99%
  3. 3Barcelona399%
  4. 4Manchester United386%
  5. 5Como377%
  6. 6Sporting CP389%
  7. 7Stuttgart388%
  8. 8Manchester City398%
  9. 9Real Betis381%
  10. 10Lens376%
  11. 11Aston Villa395%
  12. 12Borussia Dortmund395%
  13. 13Real Madrid3>99%
  14. 14Liverpool3>99%
  15. 15Arsenal3>99%
  16. 16AEK Athens342%
  17. 17Roma173%
  18. 18Shakhtar Donetsk145%
  19. 19Fenerbahçe159%
  20. 20PSV Eindhoven167%
  21. 21Villarreal063%
  22. 22Slavia Praha021%
  23. 23Club Brugge036%
  24. 24Lille047%
  25. 25Atlético de Madrid089%
  26. 26Inter095%
  27. 27LASK011%
  28. 28Napoli090%
  29. 29Galatasaray045%
  30. 30Viking09%
  31. 31Porto066%
  32. 32Leipzig056%
  33. 33Feyenoord048%
  34. 34Sabah02%
  35. 35Slovan Bratislava011%
  36. 36Bodø/Glimt041%

How the league phase works

The Champions League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Other Champions League teams