Knockout Math
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What does Inter need to go through in the Champions League?

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Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, Inter are 26th with 0 points. Next match: 13 October, at home against Club Brugge. In our simulations Inter go through (24th place or better) in 95% of cases and make the top 8 in 36%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain. The biggest match is the matchday 2 game at home against Club Brugge: winning or losing it moves the chances by 13 percentage points.

26thleague position
0point from 1 match
95%chance of going through (top 24)
36%chance of making the top 8

15,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 9th, average 11.7.

Inter matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Tuesday 8 September, 21:00
    AwayReal Madrid1–2
    Win 24%, draw 25%, defeat 51%
    Chance of going through:Played
  2. Matchday 2Tuesday 13 October, 21:00
    HomeClub Brugge –
    Win 67%, draw 20%, defeat 14%
    Chance of going through:If they win98%If they draw92%If they lose85%
  3. Matchday 3Wednesday 21 October, 21:00
    HomeShakhtar Donetsk –
    Win 76%, draw 16%, defeat 9%
    Chance of going through:If they win97%If they draw92%If they lose81%
  4. Matchday 4Tuesday 3 November, 21:00
    AwayFeyenoord –
    Win 55%, draw 24%, defeat 21%
    Chance of going through:If they win99%If they draw94%If they lose88%
  5. Matchday 5Wednesday 25 November, 21:00
    HomeStuttgart –
    Win 63%, draw 21%, defeat 16%
    Chance of going through:If they win98%If they draw93%If they lose88%
  6. Matchday 6Wednesday 9 December, 21:00
    AwayBorussia Dortmund –
    Win 41%, draw 26%, defeat 33%
    Chance of going through:If they win99%If they draw95%If they lose91%
  7. Matchday 7Tuesday 19 January, 21:00
    HomeLiverpool –
    Win 38%, draw 26%, defeat 35%
    Chance of going through:If they win99%If they draw95%If they lose91%
  8. Matchday 8Wednesday 27 January, 21:00
    AwaySlovan Bratislava –
    Win 75%, draw 16%, defeat 9%
    Chance of going through:If they win97%If they draw90%If they lose86%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Inter collect in the league phase.

0unlikely
1unlikely
2unlikely
3unlikely
4unlikely
50%
60%
73%
830%
981%
10>99%
11>99%
12100%
13100%
14100%
15100%
16100%
17100%
18100%
19100%
20unlikely
21100%
22unlikely
23unlikely
24unlikely
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Inter finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Champions League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Paris Saint-Germain399%
  2. 2Bayern München3>99%
  3. 3Barcelona399%
  4. 4Manchester United386%
  5. 5Como378%
  6. 6Sporting CP389%
  7. 7Stuttgart388%
  8. 8Manchester City398%
  9. 9Real Betis381%
  10. 10Lens376%
  11. 11Aston Villa395%
  12. 12Borussia Dortmund395%
  13. 13Real Madrid3>99%
  14. 14Liverpool3>99%
  15. 15Arsenal3>99%
  16. 16AEK Athens342%
  17. 17Roma174%
  18. 18Shakhtar Donetsk144%
  19. 19Fenerbahçe159%
  20. 20PSV Eindhoven167%
  21. 21Villarreal063%
  22. 22Slavia Praha021%
  23. 23Club Brugge036%
  24. 24Lille046%
  25. 25Atlético de Madrid089%
  26. 26Inter095%
  27. 27LASK011%
  28. 28Napoli090%
  29. 29Galatasaray044%
  30. 30Viking09%
  31. 31Porto066%
  32. 32Leipzig057%
  33. 33Feyenoord048%
  34. 34Sabah02%
  35. 35Slovan Bratislava012%
  36. 36Bodø/Glimt041%

How the league phase works

The Champions League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Other Champions League teams