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What does Shakhtar Donetsk need to go through in the Champions League?

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Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, Shakhtar Donetsk are 18th with 1 point. Next match: 14 October, at home against AEK Athens. In our simulations Shakhtar Donetsk go through (24th place or better) in 44% of cases and make the top 8 in 2%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against AEK Athens (matchday 2) and Slovan Bratislava (matchday 6): each result moves the chances by about 39 percentage points.

18thleague position
1point from 1 match
44%chance of going through (top 24)
2%chance of making the top 8

15,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 31st, average 24.7.

Shakhtar Donetsk matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Thursday 10 September, 18:45
    AwayPSV Eindhoven1–1
    Win 19%, draw 23%, defeat 58%
    Chance of going through:Played
  2. Matchday 2Wednesday 14 October, 21:00
    HomeAEK Athens –
    Win 47%, draw 26%, defeat 28%
    Chance of going through:If they win62%If they draw35%If they lose23%
  3. Matchday 3Wednesday 21 October, 21:00
    AwayInter –
    Win 9%, draw 16%, defeat 76%
    Chance of going through:If they win75%If they draw53%If they lose39%
  4. Matchday 4Tuesday 3 November, 18:45
    HomeSporting CP –
    Win 28%, draw 26%, defeat 46%
    Chance of going through:If they win69%If they draw43%If they lose31%
  5. Matchday 5Wednesday 25 November, 21:00
    HomeFenerbahçe –
    Win 36%, draw 26%, defeat 38%
    Chance of going through:If they win64%If they draw40%If they lose28%
  6. Matchday 6Wednesday 9 December, 18:45
    AwaySlovan Bratislava –
    Win 43%, draw 26%, defeat 31%
    Chance of going through:If they win63%If they draw37%If they lose24%
  7. Matchday 7Wednesday 20 January, 21:00
    AwayLeipzig –
    Win 18%, draw 22%, defeat 60%
    Chance of going through:If they win74%If they draw49%If they lose34%
  8. Matchday 8Wednesday 27 January, 21:00
    HomeReal Madrid –
    Win 12%, draw 19%, defeat 69%
    Chance of going through:If they win73%If they draw52%If they lose37%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Shakhtar Donetsk collect in the league phase.

0unlikely
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
71%
815%
965%
1096%
11>99%
12100%
13100%
14100%
15100%
16100%
17100%
18unlikely
19unlikely
20unlikely
21unlikely
22unlikely
23unlikely
24unlikely
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Shakhtar Donetsk finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Champions League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Paris Saint-Germain3>99%
  2. 2Bayern München3>99%
  3. 3Barcelona399%
  4. 4Manchester United386%
  5. 5Como378%
  6. 6Sporting CP389%
  7. 7Stuttgart388%
  8. 8Manchester City398%
  9. 9Real Betis381%
  10. 10Lens376%
  11. 11Aston Villa395%
  12. 12Borussia Dortmund395%
  13. 13Real Madrid3>99%
  14. 14Liverpool3>99%
  15. 15Arsenal3>99%
  16. 16AEK Athens342%
  17. 17Roma174%
  18. 18Shakhtar Donetsk144%
  19. 19Fenerbahçe159%
  20. 20PSV Eindhoven167%
  21. 21Villarreal063%
  22. 22Slavia Praha021%
  23. 23Club Brugge036%
  24. 24Lille047%
  25. 25Atlético de Madrid089%
  26. 26Inter095%
  27. 27LASK011%
  28. 28Napoli090%
  29. 29Galatasaray044%
  30. 30Viking09%
  31. 31Porto067%
  32. 32Leipzig057%
  33. 33Feyenoord047%
  34. 34Sabah02%
  35. 35Slovan Bratislava011%
  36. 36Bodø/Glimt041%

How the league phase works

The Champions League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Other Champions League teams