Knockout Math
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What does Stuttgart need to go through in the Champions League?

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Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, Stuttgart are 7th with 3 points. Next match: 14 October, away against Slovan Bratislava. In our simulations Stuttgart go through (24th place or better) in 88% of cases and make the top 8 in 20%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against Slovan Bratislava (matchday 2) and Lille (matchday 6): each result moves the chances by about 21 percentage points.

7thleague position
3point from 1 match
88%chance of going through (top 24)
20%chance of making the top 8

15,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 12th, average 15.1.

Stuttgart matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Wednesday 9 September, 18:45
    HomeViking3–1
    Win 69%, draw 19%, defeat 12%
    Chance of going through:Played
  2. Matchday 2Wednesday 14 October, 21:00
    AwaySlovan Bratislava –
    Win 58%, draw 23%, defeat 19%
    Chance of going through:If they win95%If they draw84%If they lose74%
  3. Matchday 3Tuesday 20 October, 21:00
    HomeAtlético de Madrid –
    Win 31%, draw 26%, defeat 43%
    Chance of going through:If they win97%If they draw89%If they lose82%
  4. Matchday 4Tuesday 3 November, 18:45
    AwayGalatasaray –
    Win 33%, draw 26%, defeat 41%
    Chance of going through:If they win97%If they draw89%If they lose81%
  5. Matchday 5Wednesday 25 November, 21:00
    AwayInter –
    Win 16%, draw 21%, defeat 63%
    Chance of going through:If they win98%If they draw91%If they lose85%
  6. Matchday 6Wednesday 9 December, 21:00
    HomeLille –
    Win 47%, draw 26%, defeat 28%
    Chance of going through:If they win96%If they draw86%If they lose77%
  7. Matchday 7Tuesday 19 January, 21:00
    HomeClub Brugge –
    Win 48%, draw 25%, defeat 26%
    Chance of going through:If they win96%If they draw86%If they lose76%
  8. Matchday 8Wednesday 27 January, 21:00
    AwayPSV Eindhoven –
    Win 30%, draw 26%, defeat 44%
    Chance of going through:If they win97%If they draw89%If they lose81%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Stuttgart collect in the league phase.

0unlikely
1unlikely
2unlikely
3unlikely
40%
50%
60%
71%
820%
973%
1098%
11>99%
12100%
13100%
14100%
15100%
16100%
17100%
18100%
19100%
20100%
21100%
22100%
23unlikely
24unlikely
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Stuttgart finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Champions League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Paris Saint-Germain399%
  2. 2Bayern München3>99%
  3. 3Barcelona399%
  4. 4Manchester United387%
  5. 5Como378%
  6. 6Sporting CP389%
  7. 7Stuttgart388%
  8. 8Manchester City398%
  9. 9Real Betis381%
  10. 10Lens375%
  11. 11Aston Villa395%
  12. 12Borussia Dortmund395%
  13. 13Real Madrid3>99%
  14. 14Liverpool3>99%
  15. 15Arsenal3>99%
  16. 16AEK Athens342%
  17. 17Roma174%
  18. 18Shakhtar Donetsk144%
  19. 19Fenerbahçe159%
  20. 20PSV Eindhoven165%
  21. 21Villarreal063%
  22. 22Slavia Praha021%
  23. 23Club Brugge036%
  24. 24Lille046%
  25. 25Atlético de Madrid088%
  26. 26Inter095%
  27. 27LASK011%
  28. 28Napoli090%
  29. 29Galatasaray044%
  30. 30Viking010%
  31. 31Porto067%
  32. 32Leipzig056%
  33. 33Feyenoord047%
  34. 34Sabah02%
  35. 35Slovan Bratislava011%
  36. 36Bodø/Glimt042%

How the league phase works

The Champions League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Other Champions League teams