Knockout Math
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What does Feyenoord need to go through in the Champions League?

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Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, Feyenoord are 33rd with 0 points. Next match: 14 October, at home against Como. In our simulations Feyenoord go through (24th place or better) in 48% of cases and make the top 8 in 2%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against Porto (matchday 5) and Como (matchday 2): each result moves the chances by about 37 percentage points.

33rdleague position
0point from 1 match
48%chance of going through (top 24)
2%chance of making the top 8

15,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 27th, average 24.1.

Feyenoord matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Wednesday 9 September, 18:45
    AwayBarcelona1–5
    Win 9%, draw 16%, defeat 76%
    Chance of going through:Played
  2. Matchday 2Wednesday 14 October, 18:45
    HomeComo –
    Win 40%, draw 26%, defeat 34%
    Chance of going through:If they win67%If they draw43%If they lose30%
  3. Matchday 3Wednesday 21 October, 21:00
    AwayReal Betis –
    Win 26%, draw 25%, defeat 48%
    Chance of going through:If they win70%If they draw48%If they lose36%
  4. Matchday 4Tuesday 3 November, 21:00
    HomeInter –
    Win 21%, draw 24%, defeat 55%
    Chance of going through:If they win71%If they draw52%If they lose38%
  5. Matchday 5Tuesday 24 November, 21:00
    HomePorto –
    Win 36%, draw 26%, defeat 38%
    Chance of going through:If they win69%If they draw44%If they lose32%
  6. Matchday 6Tuesday 8 December, 18:45
    AwayViking –
    Win 48%, draw 25%, defeat 27%
    Chance of going through:If they win63%If they draw42%If they lose28%
  7. Matchday 7Tuesday 19 January, 18:45
    AwayGalatasaray –
    Win 26%, draw 25%, defeat 48%
    Chance of going through:If they win72%If they draw48%If they lose36%
  8. Matchday 8Wednesday 27 January, 21:00
    HomeLeipzig –
    Win 36%, draw 26%, defeat 38%
    Chance of going through:If they win68%If they draw44%If they lose33%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Feyenoord collect in the league phase.

0unlikely
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
7<1%
810%
957%
1092%
11>99%
12100%
13100%
14100%
15100%
16100%
17100%
18100%
19unlikely
20unlikely
21unlikely
22unlikely
23unlikely
24unlikely
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Feyenoord finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Champions League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Paris Saint-Germain3>99%
  2. 2Bayern München3>99%
  3. 3Barcelona399%
  4. 4Manchester United386%
  5. 5Como378%
  6. 6Sporting CP389%
  7. 7Stuttgart388%
  8. 8Manchester City398%
  9. 9Real Betis381%
  10. 10Lens376%
  11. 11Aston Villa395%
  12. 12Borussia Dortmund395%
  13. 13Real Madrid3>99%
  14. 14Liverpool3>99%
  15. 15Arsenal3>99%
  16. 16AEK Athens342%
  17. 17Roma173%
  18. 18Shakhtar Donetsk144%
  19. 19Fenerbahçe159%
  20. 20PSV Eindhoven166%
  21. 21Villarreal063%
  22. 22Slavia Praha021%
  23. 23Club Brugge036%
  24. 24Lille047%
  25. 25Atlético de Madrid089%
  26. 26Inter095%
  27. 27LASK011%
  28. 28Napoli090%
  29. 29Galatasaray045%
  30. 30Viking09%
  31. 31Porto067%
  32. 32Leipzig057%
  33. 33Feyenoord048%
  34. 34Sabah02%
  35. 35Slovan Bratislava011%
  36. 36Bodø/Glimt041%

How the league phase works

The Champions League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Other Champions League teams