Europa League 2026/27: every team's chances of going through
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Updated 26 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase
18 of 144 league-phase matches have been played. The best chances of a top-8 finish belong to Benfica (86%), Juventus (82%) and Leverkusen (74%). The tightest calls are Omonia, Anderlecht and Sturm Graz, whose chances of going through are close to 50%. In the simulations, 15 points usually secure the top 8 and 9 points are usually enough for 24th place or better.
Table and chances
The current table with every team's chances from the simulations. Click a team to see its fixtures and scenarios.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Top 8 | Through | Out | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventus | 1 | +5 | 3 | 82% | 99% | 1% | |
| 2 | Crystal Palace | 1 | +4 | 3 | 46% | 95% | 5% | |
| 3 | Sparta Praha | 1 | +3 | 3 | 23% | 86% | 14% | |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 1 | +3 | 3 | 29% | 89% | 11% | |
| 5 | Union SG | 1 | +3 | 3 | 45% | 95% | 5% | |
| 6 | Ferencváros | 1 | +2 | 3 | 26% | 88% | 12% | |
| 7 | Benfica | 1 | +2 | 3 | 86% | >99% | <1% | |
| 8 | Leverkusen | 1 | +2 | 3 | 74% | 99% | 1% | |
| 9 | OFI Crete | 1 | +2 | 3 | 5% | 56% | 44% | |
| 10 | Lyon | 1 | +1 | 3 | 46% | 95% | 5% | |
| 11 | Torreense | 1 | +1 | 3 | 8% | 65% | 35% | |
| 12 | Bournemouth | 1 | +1 | 3 | 62% | 98% | 2% | |
| 13 | Olympiacos | 1 | +1 | 3 | 37% | 92% | 8% | |
| 14 | Salzburg | 1 | +1 | 3 | 31% | 90% | 10% | |
| 15 | Omonia | 1 | +1 | 3 | 4% | 49% | 51% | |
| 16 | Sunderland | 1 | +1 | 3 | 45% | 95% | 5% | |
| 17 | Rennes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 21% | 82% | 18% | |
| 18 | Hapoel Beer-Sheva | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1% | 26% | 74% | |
| 19 | GNK Dinamo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6% | 55% | 45% | |
| 20 | Sturm Graz | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5% | 53% | 47% | |
| 21 | Jagiellonia | 1 | -1 | 0 | 3% | 41% | 59% | |
| 22 | Real Sociedad | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9% | 68% | 32% | |
| 23 | Anderlecht | 1 | -1 | 0 | 4% | 49% | 51% | |
| 24 | Lillestrøm | 1 | -1 | 0 | <1% | 14% | 86% | |
| 25 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11% | 73% | 27% | |
| 26 | Celta | 1 | -1 | 0 | 8% | 62% | 38% | |
| 27 | Levski Sofia | 1 | -1 | 0 | 1% | 22% | 78% | |
| 28 | Celtic | 1 | -2 | 0 | 4% | 46% | 54% | |
| 29 | Hoffenheim | 1 | -2 | 0 | 9% | 64% | 36% | |
| 30 | Milan | 1 | -2 | 0 | 38% | 93% | 7% | |
| 31 | Celje | 1 | -2 | 0 | 2% | 39% | 61% | |
| 32 | Marseille | 1 | -3 | 0 | 18% | 81% | 19% | |
| 33 | Ararat-Armenia | 1 | -3 | 0 | <1% | 10% | 90% | |
| 34 | Viktoria Plzeň | 1 | -3 | 0 | 3% | 45% | 55% | |
| 35 | Lech Poznań | 1 | -4 | 0 | 1% | 27% | 73% | |
| 36 | N.E.C. Nijmegen | 1 | -5 | 0 | 8% | 61% | 39% |
Matchday 2 fixtures
Model chances for each match: home win, draw, away win. Times in your time zone.
- Thu 15 Oct, 18:45 AZ Alkmaar – Hapoel Beer-Sheva 60% · 22% · 18%
- Thu 15 Oct, 18:45 Celje – Omonia 42% · 26% · 32%
- Thu 15 Oct, 18:45 Lech Poznań – Leverkusen 16% · 21% · 62%
- Thu 15 Oct, 18:45 Lyon – Crystal Palace 44% · 26% · 30%
- Thu 15 Oct, 18:45 Salzburg – Milan 28% · 26% · 46%
- Thu 15 Oct, 18:45 Sparta Praha – Lillestrøm 64% · 21% · 15%
- Thu 15 Oct, 18:45 Torreense – Sunderland 26% · 25% · 49%
- Thu 15 Oct, 18:45 Union SG – Real Sociedad 45% · 26% · 29%
- Thu 15 Oct, 21:00 Benfica – Celtic 66% · 20% · 14%
- Thu 15 Oct, 21:00 Bournemouth – Sturm Graz 62% · 21% · 16%
- Thu 15 Oct, 21:00 Celta – Juventus 25% · 25% · 50%
- Thu 15 Oct, 21:00 Ferencváros – Viktoria Plzeň 49% · 25% · 26%
- Thu 15 Oct, 21:00 GNK Dinamo – Anderlecht 44% · 26% · 30%
- Thu 15 Oct, 21:00 Hoffenheim – Beşiktaş 45% · 26% · 29%
- Thu 15 Oct, 21:00 Jagiellonia – Ararat-Armenia 59% · 23% · 18%
- Thu 15 Oct, 21:00 Marseille – Olympiacos 47% · 26% · 28%
- Thu 15 Oct, 21:00 N.E.C. Nijmegen – Levski Sofia 55% · 24% · 21%
- Thu 15 Oct, 21:00 Rennes – OFI Crete 63% · 21% · 16%
How many points are needed?
How often a team finishing on each points total ends in the top 8 or at least 24th across the simulations.
How the league phase works
The Europa League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.
If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.
Frequently asked questions
How many points are needed for the top 8 in the Europa League?
In the simulations 15 points are usually enough. For 24th place or better, which means a knockout play-off spot, 9 points are usually enough.
Which teams are favourites in the Europa League?
The best chances of a top-8 finish belong to Benfica (86%), Juventus (82%), Leverkusen (74%).
Which teams are on a knife edge?
Closest to a 50% chance of going through are Omonia, Anderlecht, Sturm Graz. For these teams a single result can decide everything.
How does the Europa League league phase work?
36 teams play in a single table, each playing 8 matches against different opponents. The top eight go straight to the round of 16, 9th to 24th play a knockout play-off, and 25th to 36th are eliminated.
When does the league phase finish and what comes next?
The final matchday is on 28 January, when all matches kick off at the same time. The knockout play-offs are on 18 and 25 February 2027, the round of 16 on 11 and 18 March 2027, and the final is on 26 May 2027 in Frankfurt.
How does the Europa League differ from the other two competitions?
All three work the same way: 36 teams in one table, the top 8 go straight to the round of 16, 9th to 24th play a knockout play-off and 25th to 36th are eliminated. The difference is the number of matches: 8 each in the Champions League and Europa League, but 6 in the Conference League, which is why its points threshold is lower.
Are these numbers a prediction?
No. They are probabilities from 30,000 simulations based on team strength ratings and results so far. They show what is more likely, not what will certainly happen, and they are recalculated after every matchday.
All team pages
- Anderlecht
- Ararat-Armenia
- AZ Alkmaar
- Benfica
- Beşiktaş
- Bournemouth
- Celje
- Celta
- Celtic
- Crystal Palace
- Ferencváros
- GNK Dinamo
- Hapoel Beer-Sheva
- Hoffenheim
- Jagiellonia
- Juventus
- Lech Poznań
- Leverkusen
- Levski Sofia
- Lillestrøm
- Lyon
- Marseille
- Milan
- N.E.C. Nijmegen
- OFI Crete
- Olympiacos
- Omonia
- Real Sociedad
- Rennes
- Salzburg
- Sparta Praha
- Sturm Graz
- Sunderland
- Torreense
- Union SG
- Viktoria Plzeň