Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 2 · Thursday 15 October, 21:00
The model gives Jagiellonia a 59% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Ararat-Armenia 18%. Jagiellonia's chance of going through is 41% now: a win would take it to 53%, a defeat to 19%. Ararat-Armenia's chance of going through is 10% now: a win would take it to 26%, a defeat to 5%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Jagiellonia: top 8 | Jagiellonia: through | Ararat-Armenia: top 8 | Ararat-Armenia: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 3% | 41% | <1% | 10% |
| Jagiellonia win | 4% | 53% | <1% | 5% |
| Draw | 1% | 29% | <1% | 10% |
| Ararat-Armenia win | <1% | 19% | 1% | 26% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favourite in Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia?
The model gives Jagiellonia a 59% chance of winning. A draw has a 23% chance.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 2–0 (11%).
What does this match mean for Jagiellonia?
Jagiellonia currently have a 41% chance of going through. A win or a defeat changes that significantly, and the exact figures are in the table on this page.
When is Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia played?
Thursday 15 October, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 2).
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