Salzburg vs Milan: what's at stake in the Europa League?
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Matchday 2 · Thursday 15 October, 18:45
The model gives Salzburg a 28% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Milan 46%. Salzburg's chance of going through is 90% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 84%. Milan's chance of going through is 93% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 86%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Salzburg: top 8 | Salzburg: through | Milan: top 8 | Milan: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 31% | 90% | 38% | 93% |
| Salzburg win | 52% | 98% | 18% | 86% |
| Draw | 29% | 92% | 29% | 92% |
| Milan win | 18% | 84% | 54% | 98% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favourite in Salzburg vs Milan?
The model gives Milan a 46% chance of winning. A draw has a 26% chance.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 0–1 (11%).
What does this match mean for Salzburg?
Salzburg currently have a 90% chance of going through. A win or a defeat changes that significantly, and the exact figures are in the table on this page.
When is Salzburg vs Milan played?
Thursday 15 October, 18:45 (Europa League, matchday 2).
Other matchday 2 fixtures
- Sparta Praha – Lillestrøm
- AZ Alkmaar – Hapoel Beer-Sheva
- Lech Poznań – Leverkusen
- Celje – Omonia
- Lyon – Crystal Palace
- Union SG – Real Sociedad
- Torreense – Sunderland
- Bournemouth – Sturm Graz
- Ferencváros – Viktoria Plzeň
- GNK Dinamo – Anderlecht
- Jagiellonia – Ararat-Armenia
- N.E.C. Nijmegen – Levski Sofia
- Marseille – Olympiacos
- Celta – Juventus
- Benfica – Celtic
- Rennes – OFI Crete
- Hoffenheim – Beşiktaş