Knockout Math
PredictLive
EN

Union SG vs Real Sociedad: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 2 · Thursday 15 October, 18:45

Union SG5th, 3 pts
–Matchday 2
Real Sociedad22nd, 0 pts
45%Union SG win
26%Draw
29%Real Sociedad win

The model gives Union SG a 45% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Real Sociedad 29%. Union SG's chance of going through is 95% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 89%. Real Sociedad's chance of going through is 68% now: a win would take it to 86%, a defeat to 56%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Union SG: top 8Union SG: throughReal Sociedad: top 8Real Sociedad: through
Now45%95%9%68%
Union SG win61%99%3%56%
Draw38%95%7%69%
Real Sociedad win26%89%20%86%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–18%
2–08%
0–07%

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Union SG vs Real Sociedad?

The model gives Union SG a 45% chance of winning. A draw has a 26% chance.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

What does this match mean for Union SG?

Union SG currently have a 95% chance of going through. A win or a defeat changes that significantly, and the exact figures are in the table on this page.

When is Union SG vs Real Sociedad played?

Thursday 15 October, 18:45 (Europa League, matchday 2).

Other matchday 2 fixtures