Knockout Math
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What does Salzburg need to go through in the Europa League?

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Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, Salzburg are 14th with 3 points. Next match: 15 October, at home against Milan. In our simulations Salzburg go through (24th place or better) in 88% of cases and make the top 8 in 30%. 10 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations). The biggest matches are against Celje (matchday 3) and Sparta Praha (matchday 6): each result moves the chances by about 20 percentage points.

14thleague position
3point from 1 match
88%chance of going through (top 24)
30%chance of making the top 8

15,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 12th, average 13.9.

Salzburg matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Thursday 17 September, 21:00
    AwayLevski Sofia1–0
    Win 48%, draw 25%, defeat 27%
    Chance of going through:Played
  2. Matchday 2Thursday 15 October, 18:45
    HomeMilan –
    Win 26%, draw 25%, defeat 49%
    Chance of going through:If they win97%If they draw90%If they lose82%
  3. Matchday 3Thursday 22 October, 21:00
    AwayCelje –
    Win 46%, draw 26%, defeat 28%
    Chance of going through:If they win97%If they draw87%If they lose76%
  4. Matchday 4Thursday 5 November, 18:45
    AwayAnderlecht –
    Win 35%, draw 26%, defeat 38%
    Chance of going through:If they win97%If they draw88%If they lose80%
  5. Matchday 5Thursday 26 November, 18:45
    HomeArarat-Armenia –
    Win 72%, draw 17%, defeat 11%
    Chance of going through:If they win93%If they draw79%If they lose67%
  6. Matchday 6Thursday 10 December, 21:00
    HomeSparta Praha –
    Win 47%, draw 26%, defeat 28%
    Chance of going through:If they win96%If they draw86%If they lose76%
  7. Matchday 7Thursday 21 January, 21:00
    AwayLeverkusen –
    Win 15%, draw 21%, defeat 64%
    Chance of going through:If they win98%If they draw91%If they lose85%
  8. Matchday 8Thursday 28 January, 21:00
    HomeCrystal Palace –
    Win 36%, draw 26%, defeat 38%
    Chance of going through:If they win97%If they draw88%If they lose80%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Salzburg collect in the league phase.

0unlikely
1unlikely
2unlikely
3unlikely
4unlikely
50%
60%
71%
88%
950%
1094%
11100%
12100%
13100%
14100%
15100%
16100%
17100%
18100%
19100%
20100%
21100%
22100%
23unlikely
24unlikely
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Salzburg finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Europa League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Juventus399%
  2. 2Crystal Palace394%
  3. 3Sparta Praha383%
  4. 4Beşiktaş385%
  5. 5Union SG392%
  6. 6Ferencváros383%
  7. 7Benfica399%
  8. 8Leverkusen399%
  9. 9OFI Crete349%
  10. 10Lyon394%
  11. 11Torreense359%
  12. 12Bournemouth397%
  13. 13Olympiacos391%
  14. 14Salzburg388%
  15. 15Omonia345%
  16. 16Sunderland393%
  17. 17Rennes183%
  18. 18Hapoel Beer-Sheva127%
  19. 19GNK Dinamo154%
  20. 20Sturm Graz152%
  21. 21Jagiellonia041%
  22. 22Real Sociedad071%
  23. 23Anderlecht050%
  24. 24Lillestrøm015%
  25. 25AZ Alkmaar075%
  26. 26Celta064%
  27. 27Levski Sofia021%
  28. 28Celtic053%
  29. 29Hoffenheim070%
  30. 30Milan095%
  31. 31Celje040%
  32. 32Marseille083%
  33. 33Ararat-Armenia011%
  34. 34Viktoria Plzeň049%
  35. 35Lech Poznań034%
  36. 36N.E.C. Nijmegen063%

How the league phase works

The Europa League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Other Europa League teams