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What does Lillestrøm need to go through in the Europa League?

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Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, Lillestrøm are 24th with 0 points. Next match: 15 October, away against Sparta Praha. In our simulations Lillestrøm go through (24th place or better) in 15% of cases and make the top 8 in <1%. 10 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations). The biggest matches are against Levski Sofia (matchday 6) and Viktoria Plzeň (matchday 4): each result moves the chances by about 24 percentage points.

24thleague position
0point from 1 match
15%chance of going through (top 24)
<1%chance of making the top 8

15,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 36th, average 30.5.

Lillestrøm matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Thursday 17 September, 21:00
    HomeTorreense1–2
    Win 44%, draw 26%, defeat 30%
    Chance of going through:Played
  2. Matchday 2Thursday 15 October, 18:45
    AwaySparta Praha –
    Win 17%, draw 22%, defeat 61%
    Chance of going through:If they win33%If they draw15%If they lose10%
  3. Matchday 3Thursday 22 October, 21:00
    HomeReal Sociedad –
    Win 21%, draw 24%, defeat 55%
    Chance of going through:If they win33%If they draw15%If they lose8%
  4. Matchday 4Thursday 5 November, 18:45
    HomeViktoria Plzeň –
    Win 31%, draw 26%, defeat 43%
    Chance of going through:If they win29%If they draw13%If they lose7%
  5. Matchday 5Thursday 26 November, 21:00
    AwayLyon –
    Win 11%, draw 17%, defeat 72%
    Chance of going through:If they win40%If they draw19%If they lose11%
  6. Matchday 6Thursday 10 December, 21:00
    AwayLevski Sofia –
    Win 29%, draw 26%, defeat 45%
    Chance of going through:If they win31%If they draw12%If they lose7%
  7. Matchday 7Thursday 21 January, 18:45
    HomeBournemouth –
    Win 19%, draw 23%, defeat 58%
    Chance of going through:If they win32%If they draw15%If they lose9%
  8. Matchday 8Thursday 28 January, 21:00
    AwayCelta –
    Win 14%, draw 20%, defeat 67%
    Chance of going through:If they win37%If they draw18%If they lose10%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Lillestrøm collect in the league phase.

00%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
86%
948%
1092%
11100%
12100%
13100%
14100%
15unlikely
16unlikely
17unlikely
18unlikely
19unlikely
20unlikely
21unlikely
22unlikely
23unlikely
24unlikely
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Lillestrøm finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Europa League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Juventus399%
  2. 2Crystal Palace394%
  3. 3Sparta Praha383%
  4. 4Beşiktaş385%
  5. 5Union SG393%
  6. 6Ferencváros382%
  7. 7Benfica399%
  8. 8Leverkusen399%
  9. 9OFI Crete349%
  10. 10Lyon394%
  11. 11Torreense361%
  12. 12Bournemouth397%
  13. 13Olympiacos391%
  14. 14Salzburg389%
  15. 15Omonia345%
  16. 16Sunderland393%
  17. 17Rennes183%
  18. 18Hapoel Beer-Sheva128%
  19. 19GNK Dinamo153%
  20. 20Sturm Graz152%
  21. 21Jagiellonia041%
  22. 22Real Sociedad070%
  23. 23Anderlecht050%
  24. 24Lillestrøm015%
  25. 25AZ Alkmaar075%
  26. 26Celta064%
  27. 27Levski Sofia021%
  28. 28Celtic053%
  29. 29Hoffenheim071%
  30. 30Milan095%
  31. 31Celje039%
  32. 32Marseille083%
  33. 33Ararat-Armenia011%
  34. 34Viktoria Plzeň050%
  35. 35Lech Poznań033%
  36. 36N.E.C. Nijmegen063%

How the league phase works

The Europa League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Other Europa League teams