What does AZ Alkmaar need to go through in the Europa League?

Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, AZ Alkmaar are 25th with 0 points. Next match: 15 October, at home against Hapoel Beer-Sheva. In our simulations AZ Alkmaar go through (24th place or better) in 75% of cases and make the top 8 in 14%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against Ararat-Armenia (matchday 3) and Hapoel Beer-Sheva (matchday 2): each result moves the chances by about 31 percentage points.

25thleague position

0point from 1 match

75%chance of going through (top 24)

14%chance of making the top 8

15,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 19th, average 18.1.

AZ Alkmaar matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

Matchday 1Wednesday 16 September, 21:00

AwaySunderland0–1

Win 33%, draw 26%, defeat 41%

Chance of going through:Played
Matchday 2Thursday 15 October, 18:45

HomeHapoel Beer-Sheva –

Win 61%, draw 22%, defeat 17%

Chance of going through:If they win85%If they draw65%If they lose53%
Matchday 3Thursday 22 October, 18:45

AwayArarat-Armenia –

Win 61%, draw 22%, defeat 17%

Chance of going through:If they win85%If they draw63%If they lose55%
Matchday 4Thursday 5 November, 21:00

HomeJuventus –

Win 27%, draw 25%, defeat 48%

Chance of going through:If they win91%If they draw76%If they lose66%
Matchday 5Thursday 26 November, 21:00

AwaySparta Praha –

Win 35%, draw 26%, defeat 38%

Chance of going through:If they win90%If they draw74%If they lose62%
Matchday 6Thursday 10 December, 18:45

HomeSturm Graz –

Win 55%, draw 24%, defeat 21%

Chance of going through:If they win86%If they draw68%If they lose55%
Matchday 7Thursday 21 January, 21:00

HomeGNK Dinamo –

Win 54%, draw 24%, defeat 22%

Chance of going through:If they win86%If they draw69%If they lose55%
Matchday 8Thursday 28 January, 21:00

AwayBenfica –

Win 20%, draw 23%, defeat 57%

Chance of going through:If they win91%If they draw78%If they lose69%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points AZ Alkmaar collect in the league phase.

0unlikely

1unlikely

2unlikely

30%

40%

50%

60%

71%

813%

963%

1098%

11>99%

12100%

13100%

14100%

15100%

16100%

17100%

18100%

19100%

20unlikely

21unlikely

22unlikely

23unlikely

24unlikely

almost certainlikelypossible

Where could AZ Alkmaar finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Europa League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

1Juventus399%
2Crystal Palace393%
3Sparta Praha383%
4Beşiktaş385%
5Union SG392%
6Ferencváros382%
7Benfica399%
8Leverkusen399%
9OFI Crete349%
10Lyon394%
11Torreense360%
12Bournemouth397%
13Olympiacos391%
14Salzburg389%
15Omonia346%
16Sunderland393%
17Rennes183%
18Hapoel Beer-Sheva127%
19GNK Dinamo153%
20Sturm Graz152%
21Jagiellonia041%
22Real Sociedad071%
23Anderlecht050%
24Lillestrøm015%
25AZ Alkmaar075%
26Celta064%
27Levski Sofia020%
28Celtic053%
29Hoffenheim072%
30Milan095%
31Celje039%
32Marseille083%
33Ararat-Armenia011%
34Viktoria Plzeň049%
35Lech Poznań033%
36N.E.C. Nijmegen062%

How the league phase works

The Europa League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.