What does Ajax need to go through in the Conference League?

Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

Ajax will play 6 league-phase matches, 3 at home and 3 away. First match: 15 October, away against Hajduk Split. In our simulations Ajax go through (24th place or better) in 84% of cases and make the top 8 in 30%. 7 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 8 points make it almost certain. The biggest match is the matchday 1 game away against Hajduk Split: winning or losing it moves the chances by 25 percentage points.

–league position (not started yet)

0points from 0 matches

84%chance of going through (top 24)

30%chance of making the top 8

15,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 9th, average 14.5.

Ajax matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

Matchday 1Thursday 15 October, 18:45

AwayHajduk Split –

Win 46%, draw 26%, defeat 28%

Chance of going through:If they win95%If they draw81%If they lose70%
Matchday 2Thursday 22 October, 21:00

HomeAtalanta –

Win 29%, draw 26%, defeat 45%

Chance of going through:If they win95%If they draw86%If they lose77%
Matchday 3Thursday 5 November, 18:45

AwayMidtjylland –

Win 35%, draw 26%, defeat 38%

Chance of going through:If they win96%If they draw84%If they lose74%
Matchday 4Thursday 26 November, 18:45

HomeThun –

Win 67%, draw 20%, defeat 14%

Chance of going through:If they win92%If they draw76%If they lose62%
Matchday 5Thursday 10 December, 21:00

AwaySint-Truidense –

Win 46%, draw 26%, defeat 28%

Chance of going through:If they win95%If they draw82%If they lose70%
Matchday 6Thursday 17 December, 21:00

HomeGetafe –

Win 47%, draw 26%, defeat 28%

Chance of going through:If they win94%If they draw81%If they lose72%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Ajax collect in the league phase.

0unlikely

10%

20%

30%

40%

52%

626%

786%

8100%

9100%

10100%

11100%

12100%

13100%

14100%

15100%

16100%

17unlikely

18100%

almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Ajax finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Projected Conference League table

The league phase has not started yet, so teams are ordered by their average projected position. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

How the league phase works

The Conference League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 6 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.